Posts Tagged ‘US Economy’

BBC News reported World Bank’s report of slower economic growth in the year 2011. World Bank has predicted that global GDP growth will be 3.3% against 3.9% in 2010. It has also predicted a strong growth in the emerging economies with India and China leading from the front.

Well, let us try to take a closer look. Please note that I am not an expert. I am just a reader of news who have developed an interest into looking at different things and hope to share my thoughts. I have no doubt that the India and Chine are going to lead the world economic growth but at what cost. China is keeping its currency manipulated so that its exports benefits the country’s position. India, though not exactly an export-oriented country but definitely a service-providing company. Products are not generally produced here rather they are definitely serviced here.

Even though I, too bet on the Indian and Chinese economies, I have few concerns. Firstly, the population. There is no control over the population in these countries. And till date there is no solid system to measure unemployment or the population itself correctly. In such a scenario, would it safe to have its per-capita, GDP and other measures of economy to be absolutely correct. I doubt it. Secondly, I still don’t believe that the consumption power is good here. I would request someone to find out if the commodities and goods produced in China are really consumed within the country. I believe that the figures could be surprising for some. I still feel that majority of goods are consumed not here rather outside. So, I feel that the real consumer base is the developed countries. Having said that, i must say that we are improving but it is going to take quite a time to catch up. Thirdly, dependency on Oil. We all know all the emerging and developing countries rely heavily on Oil, whose price is hovering around $90. I feel that that Oil price should be around $120. One thing that China and India say in their defense in terms of their oil consumption is their per capita consumption is far less than the consumption of US. But boss, China and India has the largest and second largest population of the world. You guys take the call. Are the defensive statements justified? Lastly, Food Inflation. Inflation of food is at its peak. We have seen the effect of increase in the prices of Onion in India. People went crazy and made the hell out of the government. In the past, we have seen that the governments have lost power at the Central government in the past. Oppositions won over the ruling government just on the basis of high Onion price. Considering the current scenario, all the vegetables are at their record high. How it is going to affect the people and the economy, in general, would be interesting to watch closely but I am sure if the situation remains same as of now, India will definitely suffer.

Comparing the prevailing scenarios of developing and emerging countries’ scenarios, economies of developed countries will have to also tackle few obstacles. Among all of them, the most important and challenging thing will be “Unemployment” World Bank predicts that the unemployment scenario would remain dismal. So, I feel it is going to hurt more than anything else for them. Secondly, European scenario does look so good as of now.  I somehow feel that the European debt crisis is going to remain bad and it might not improve as quickly as we might have wanted it to. Thirdly, the government debt will continue to mount and may cause imbalances in their statements, not a good sign at all.

To conclude, I feel that the all the economies of the world will see some nice challenges and if they are tackled appropriately, I am sure that we will redefine how businesses will be done in future. Hope that the future brings more prosperity and happiness all around, equally 🙂

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Well, the Sub-Prime Crisis has now taken the sweat and blood of every economy with USA leading the list; indicating one of the worst recession in the last 30 years. Before I put my opinions, let me start with a small introduction to what is this crisis is all about. I have kept it as simple so as to be followed by any reader.

In the last 5-7 years, the reality prices soar like a bubble and as expected, it inflated so much that it got busted. The reality prices rose to the sky-high with not a single country being left affected, including India. Now, banks started with the loan system of availing the homes with almost no hassle and low interest rates riding high on the strong economic growth. In fact, later part, the banks gave loan without any scrutiny and with the options of no down payment and customers availing all the amount through loan. Customers were happy and so does the banks, The banks, then, started giving the bunch of these loan in the form of funds
to other investment firms as that of Bears. So, when everybody was happy, where did it go wrong?

The problem came when the reality sector got busted and prices fell. The customers backed out and so the firms like Bears got busted and banks, including the largest bank of the world-CitiBank recording huge losses; pulling down the US markets and the economy and many other problems.

Now, what makes India not getting affected so much with this crisis; holding strong when all the economies of the world have fumbled. The answer is CORRUPTION. Strange; right. Lets take a scenario in India to understand it better. When a house is brought, it gets registered at a considerable low price; thus, paying the remaining balance amount in BLACK money. Now, suppose, a person who buys an apartment for 80 lakhs shows 40-50 lakhs as registration in order to save tax and making out the rest from his BLACK income. Now, even though the price of the flat fall, the margin is such it has to fall considerably to make out this difference.

So, if we feel we are not affected, let us think twice in true terms. We are affected but is not visible in the short term but the long-term implications could be devastating. US economy may be struggling now but its fundamentals are so strong that it will definitely bounce back. But what about India, where major part of the country is controlled by few people, corruption and dirty politics. Not to forget, here government controls the RBI and various factors like inflation. What if they supress it for their benefits as elections are knocking at the door. Don’t forget how BJP suppressed the inflation figure during last time General Elections to put forward false “India Shining” campaign.

I support US economy here because the visibility is more and clear as they are privately owned bodies and privately owned bodies can’t take the losses onto them.

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